Tag: extending

Euphoria: World Stocks In Longest Winning Streak Since Oct 2017

Defying all calls for a reversal to the extended stock rally, US equity futures continued to climb overnight ahead of tomorrow’s “either dovish or extremely dovish” FOMC meeting, rising alongside European stocks on Tuesday which snapped higher following a subdued session for Asian stocks as the Stoxx 50 printed 2019 highs, while the DAX stalled just shy of its 200DMA.

As a result, global shares enjoyed their longest winning streak since Oct 2017 ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting, while the pound jumped as algos bought the British currency after another dramatic twist in the Brexit plot bolstered bets on a lengthy delay to the process.

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With traders expecting nothing but more good news from the Fed’s two-day meeting which starts later, which is expected to cut its “dot” forecast to just one rate hike in 2019 and at most one more in 2020, Europe’s early gains lifted MSCI’s All world index for a seventh straight day, the longest streak of consecutive gains since Oct 2017, and to its highest since October.

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In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index advanced after a quiet start, as almost every sector turned green. Autos, basic resources and retailers lead indices higher, construction and real estate names underperform but trade little changed on the day.  Earlier in the session, Asia traded in a tight range as equities posted modest losses in Japan, China and Australia, but they rose in Hong Kong and India.

S&P futures rise over 11 points, rising to a fresh 5 month high and set for another green session after bank and tech stocks helped extend the year’s 20% charge for U.S. markets on Monday.

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Meanwhile, price action remained muted in the bond space as Germany and US yield curves bull flatten at the margin. Gilts outperform, printing higher-highs since last

In FX, sterling rebounded back over 1.33 after slipping to as low as $1.3183 in the previous session as lawmakers cast doubt on Prime Minister Theresa May’s third attempt to get parliament to back her Brexit deal. As Reuters notes May’s Brexit plans were thrown into further turmoil on Monday when the speaker of parliament ruled that she could not put her divorce deal to a new vote unless it was re-submitted in fundamentally different form. May has only two days to win approval for her deal to leave the European Union if she wants to go to a summit with the bloc’s leaders on Thursday with something to offer them in return for more time. Meanwhile, senior diplomats said the European Union leaders could hold off making any final decision on any Brexit delay when they meet in Brussels later this week, depending on what exactly May asks them for.

“The predominant notion adopted by the market is that as long as the worst case scenario of hard Brexit is avoided by delaying Brexit, the pound is a buy on dips,” Rabobank strategists said in a note, however adding that “In the coming days faith amongst traders in an ability of UK MPs to make rational decisions could fade rapidly and cause a major selloff in GBP.”

The dollar was again feeling the strain of a dovish Fed, sliding to a two-week low on the bets that with both U.S. and global growth now slowing the Fed will need to put its rate hike plans on ice.

“The market has priced that the Fed’s next move will be a (rate) cut,” said Charles Schwab chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders, at adding that it may have to if U.S. data continues to sour and key indicators such as the U.S. yield curve start flashing warning signs again. As we discussed extensively in recent days, investors will particularly look to see whether FOMC officials have sufficiently lowered their interest rate forecasts to more closely align their “dot plot”, a diagram showing individual policymakers’ rate views for the next three years.

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Traders will also be looking for more details on the Fed’s plan to stop cutting the Fed’s holdings of nearly $3.8 trillion in bonds. “A key focus is when the Fed will omit the word ‘patient’ from its statement, as that would be a pre-requisite for a rate hike,” said Toru Yamamoto, chief fixed income strategist at Daiwa Securities.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May is said to request a 9-12 months delay to Brexit, according to The Sun, while reports in the Guardian suggested that the EU will formally agree on Brexit delay this week. UK Conservative MPs reportedly demand a departure date from PM May in return for them passing her Brexit deal, while there were also reports that hardline Tory Brexiteers were said to have threatened to strike if PM May goes ahead with idea to delay Brexit by 1 year.

In geopolitical news, US Senior Arms Control Officials sated that Iran’s missile program destabilises the region and increases the risk of a regional arms race, US Official says it will aggressively counter Iran’s proliferation of ballistic missiles are unlawful arms transfers. Adding that the only way for North Korea to achieve security and development is to abandon all weapons of mass destruction along with all ballistic missile programs.

Meanwhile, oil prices hit 2019 highs, supported by supply cuts led by producer club OPEC. U.S. sanctions against oil producers Iran and Venezuela are also boosting prices, although traders said the market may be capped by rising U.S. output. WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+0.5%) are somewhat firmer after a quiet overnight session, although WTI prices are inching closer to USD 60/bbl having surpassed the USD 59.50/bbl mark to the upside; as oil closed at its highest level YTD yesterday. News flow for the complex continues to be quiet after OPEC cancelled the April meeting and are to decide on output cuts in June. Gold (+0.2%) is largely unchanged, trading around the middle of the day’s range on a lack of catalysts and a subdued dollar ahead of this weeks key events. Elsewhere, spot Palladium has passed USD 1600/oz for the first time this morning following reports that Russia are considering a ban on the exports of precious metal scrap, in an attempt to promote domestic refining. Russian are one of the worlds top Palladium exporters, responsible for around 21% of total palladium exports in 2017 by value.

Top Market News

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,844.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 382.89
  • MXAP up 0.05% to 160.48
  • MXAPJ up 0.07% to 530.40
  • Nikkei down 0.08% to 21,566.85
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,610.23
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 29,466.28
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,090.98
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 38,287.56
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.09% to 6,184.79
  • Kospi down 0.09% to 2,177.62
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.076%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1355
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $67.81/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.1 bps to 2.101%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 1.144%
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $67.81/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,305.56
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 96.38

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve officials say they’re willing to tolerate an overshoot of their inflation goal. If the opposite happens, the plan is less clear
  • The Trump administration lambasted socialism and the Democrats’ Medicare for All proposal while extolling the benefits of capitalism and its own tax cuts in the annual “Economic Report of the President”
  • A vote on Theresa May’s deal is now very unlikely this week, U.K. Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay said
  • The U.K. labor market remained in robust health in the three months through January, despite a Brexit-induced slowdown in the overall economy
  • Australia’s central bank is holding fire on interest rates, even as a slide in the nation’s home prices deepens, as it awaits a resolution to the divergence between strong hiring and decelerating economic growth
  • The partnership at the heart of the OPEC+ alliance showed further signs of strain after Russia pressured the Saudi-led group to delay a decision on the future of their production cuts

Asian stock indices traded indecisively amid a lack of key drivers for the region and with participants cautious ahead of the upcoming risk events. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was choppy as strength in mining names vied with the weakness in energy and financials in Australia, while jittery trade in the Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) largely reflected currency fluctuations. Elsewhere, sentiment in China was also fickle in which the Hang Seng (+0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) swung between gains and losses as focus centred on earnings and after the continued but tepid liquidity effort by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially quiet amid the indecisive risk sentiment in the region, although prices later found support following a 20yr auction in which all metrics improved from the previous month. RBA Minutes from March 5th meeting reiterated that the board sees no strong case for near-term move and that scenarios are more evenly balanced than last year. Furthermore, the board noted significant uncertainties regarding the economic outlook and that trade tensions remain source of uncertainty for global outlook but added that the labour market continued its improvement and that unemployment is seen to decline to 4.75%.

Top Asian News

  • Tencent Is Said to Target 10% of Managers for Cuts, Demotion
  • Hong Kong’s Weak Dollar Is a Victim of Surging China Stocks
  • Etihad Offers 24% Jet Air Stake to Lenders for INR4B: ET Now
  • Bocom Is Said to Cut Convertible-Bond Issue to $4.5 Billion

Major European equities are firmer [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%] following a relatively indecisive overnight session, where main Asian indices finished essentially flat ahead of this weeks key risk events. Notable movers this morning include Antofagasta (+4.0%) after FY earnings and the Co. stating they expect 2019 to be another record setting year, as such the Materials sector is higher by around 0.7%; more broadly all sectors are in the green. Towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Deutsche Bank (-2.5%) and Commerzbank (-2.5%), likely affected by some retracement from yesterdays gains on conformation of merger discussion and Fitch stating that the talks highlight challenges and pressures of both banks to improve profitability. Commerzbank are also hampered by being downgraded at RBC. Elsewhere, following reports of a cyber attack, the impact of which is still being assessed, Norsk Hydro (-1.6%) are in the red; subsequent reports indicate that only the Co. has been affected by the attack.

Top European News

  • Switzerland Feb. Watch Exports Rose 3.4% Y/Y
  • U.K. Government Sees No Vote on Deal This Week: Brexit Update
  • Asos Falls Most in Three Months on Weak Second-Quarter Sales
  • Iliad Plunges as Customer Losses Drown Out Tower Ambitions

In FX, the The broad Dollar remains depressed in advance of FOMC day 1 amidst widespread anticipation that the March policy meeting will culminate in a further dovish shift via downgraded SEP forecasts and more details about the earlier end to QT. Indeed, the index has probed a fraction deeper beneath recent lows and is currently below key technical support at 96.434 (50% Fib retracement of the prior move from 95.157 to 97.711), which could be telling on a closing basis even before the Fed pronouncements tomorrow and Chair Powell’s presser.

  • G10 – Notwithstanding the generally soft Greenback, ranges are relatively tight with only marginal deviations around data for the likes of the Pound and Aussie. Cable has recovered from yesterday’s Brexit upset with the aid of an almost universally strong ONS labour market report to retest offers and resistance ahead of the 1.3300 level, while in contrast Aud/Usd has lost more momentum above 0.7100 after RBA minutes underlining the neutral stance and house price data compounding weakness in the economy overall. Elsewhere, Usd/Jpy has pulled back a bit further towards 111.00 having retreated through the 200 DMA at 111.45, but Eur/Usd is still butting up against upside chart hurdles above 1.1350, including a Fib at 1.1373, which represents a 50% reversal from 2019 high to low. The Franc is attempting to breach parity again following a solid Swiss trade surplus and pre-SNB, while the Loonie is also eyeing 1.3300 peaks vs its US counterpart against the backdrop of firmer crude prices. Back down under, the Kiwi is pivoting 0.6850 ahead of NZ Q4 current account data and the latest GDT auction.
  • Note, some BIG OPTION EXPIRIES could factor in the absence of anything more directional ahead of the NY cut today, with 1 bn in Cable at 1.3290-1.3300, 1.2 bn in Usd/Jpy between 11.30-40 and 1.3 bn in Aud/Jpy from 79.35-50 as the cross hovers just shy of 79.00.

In commodities, WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+0.5%) are somewhat firmer after a quiet overnight session, although WTI prices are inching closer to USD 60/bbl having surpassed the USD 59.50/bbl mark to the upside; as oil closed at its highest level YTD yesterday. News flow for the complex continues to be quiet after OPEC cancelled the April meeting and are to decide on output cuts in June. Looking ahead we have the US API Weekly release, which previously indicated a crude stocks draw of 2.6M. Gold (+0.2%) is largely unchanged, trading around the middle of the day’s range on a lack of catalysts and a subdued dollar ahead of this weeks key events. Elsewhere, spot Palladium has passed USD 1600/oz for the first time this morning following reports that Russia are considering a ban on the exports of precious metal scrap, in an attempt to promote domestic refining. Russian are one of the worlds top Palladium exporters, responsible for around 21% of total palladium exports in 2017 by value.

In terms of the day ahead, outside of all things Brexit, we’ll get January factory orders and final January revisions to durable and capital goods orders. Away from that, the ECB’s Praet will speak this morning. Brazil President Bolsonaro will also visit the White House and meet with President Trump.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: Factory Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.6%
  • 10am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
  • 10am: Durables Ex Transportation, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%
  • 10am: Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.8%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I look forward to the latest TV viewing figures in the U.K. as I expect that the British Parliament channel will have gone up from a handful of MPs’ family members to a global fanbase of millions over the last few weeks. I’m surprised Netflix haven’t bought up the rights. Indeed, I was reading over the weekend that the speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow has become a mini celebrity in Germany, amongst other places. Even my daughter now shouts “order, order”. Well, after yesterday, his fame or infamy will multiply further. We were aware of the rule that you couldn’t bring back an identical motion to the House of Commons but we all assumed that enough precedent has already been thrown in the trash can over recent months in Parliament that if it were decided that a fresh vote may yield different numbers then it would easily find a way of happening.

However, the speaker Mr Bercow thought differently yesterday and actioned a ruling that was introduced in 1604 to prevent the government from bringing back the Withdrawal Agreement for a meaningful vote if there are no changes to it. The solicitor general said that “there were ways around this” but the reality is that 1) the DUP haven’t yet said they’d support the deal after hopes that the last 24 hours would see such an announcement and 2) time is running out to bring the vote before the EU summit on Thursday/Friday. We’d need to find an immediate way round the ruling and for a fresh vote to be announced tonight for it to come in time. Given the constitutional crisis and the current lack of DUP support, it now looks very likely that Mrs May will go to the EU summit to ask for an extension without MV3 having taken place and without a definitive plan as to what the extension is for. Meanwhile, The Sun reported late last night that PM May is drafting a letter to the EU Council President Donald Tusk to formally ask for a Brexit delay of between 9 to 12 months. The same report also added that hardline Tory Brexiteers are threatening to go on a strike if PM May indeed asks for such a lengthy delay.

Sterling followed the evolving news and with no sign of a breakthrough with the DUP it drifted lower all day before hitting a low of $1.3185 (-0.79% at that point) post the Bercow ruling but clawing back to $1.3255 at the close, still down -0.26% on the day. This morning we are up a little more at $1.3273 (+0.14%).

Markets did temporarily swoon alongside the slide in the pound, when the speaker intervention gave markets a bit of a shock. The S&P 500 dipped into negative territory and the VIX index rose almost a full point, but the moves subsequently retraced alongside the stabilisation in the pound. The S&P 500 ended the session +0.37% higher, with the NASDAQ up +0.25%. The DOW lagged a little again at +0.25%, as Boeing continued to underperform, shedding -1.77% and taking its six-session loss to -11.92%. Elsewhere, markets appeared to be waiting on the sidelines for some of the potentially bigger events later this week. The STOXX 600 closed +0.27% and traded in the smallest range (0.29%) since January 21st. In terms of sectors, there was a decent outperformance for energy and financials, with telecoms and utilities struggling.

Energy got a boost as WTI climbed +0.80% after OPEC+ came to the joint recommendation to delay a decision on extending production cuts to June. In rates, Treasuries were marginally weaker with 2y and 10y yields just over+1bp higher while the 2s10 curve remained comfortably within its recent range at 14.9bps. In Europe, the periphery was the bigger winner with BTPs -3.9bps tighter and yields in Portugal -4.7bps lower following the sovereign rating upgrade by S&P on Friday. Emerging markets outperformed, the MSCI index gaining +1.11% to reach its highest level since last August. The Brazilian real (+0.59%) and Indian rupee (+0.82%) led gains in the currency space with an index of EM FX advancing +0.31%.

It seems like markets are in something of a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting. Our economists have published their expectations here , and they expect few surprises in the statement or Powell’s rhetoric. They anticipate the median rate expectation for 2019 will fall to one hike, and will be monitoring for any signals about balance sheet policy or what conditions are needed to allow for another hike. Matt Luzzetti also published a note yesterday ( here ) which shows that higher Fed rate hike pricing is actually, and somewhat counterintuitively, consistent with easier financial conditions. This is because positive economic data helps equities and credit, while also boosting confidence that the Fed can hike. So we certainly seem to be in a “good news is good news” environment.

Overnight, markets in Asia are heading lower in the absence of any clear fresh drivers with the Nikkei (-0.12%), Hang Seng (-0.23%), Shanghai Comp (-0.22%) and Kospi (-0.11%) all down. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.06%) are trading flattish and the Japanese yen is up +0.15%, along with most G10 currencies this morning.

Back to yesterday and on the data front, the euro area trade balance for January was slightly larger than expected at €17bn on a seasonally adjusted basis, and the December figure was revised upwards as well. That likely reflects somewhat tepid European demand earlier this year, though it could also indicate some improvement in the external environment. In the US, the NAHB survey for March printed at 62, the same as in February, which signals some evidence of conditions bottoming out, though there isn’t much sign of a more robust rebound. Homebuilder stocks underperformed, falling -0.34%.

In terms of the day ahead, outside of all things Brexit, this morning we get the January and February employment report in the UK, where the consensus is for an unchanged earnings reading (+3.4% 3m/yoy) and unemployment rate (+4.0%). We’ll also get January construction output data for the Euro Area, Q4 labour costs data for the Euro Area and the March ZEW survey in Germany. In the US, we’ll get January factory orders and final January revisions to durable and capital goods orders. Away from that, the ECB’s Praet will speak this morning. Brazil President Bolsonaro will also visit the White House and meet with President Trump.

 

 

 

 

 

Canada to extend military training mission in Ukraine: source

March 17, 2019

By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canada will announce as expected on Monday that it is extending a 200-strong military training mission in Ukraine, a source directly familiar with the matter said on Sunday.

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan are scheduled to hold a news conference at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) on Monday.

“It is the Ukraine extension,” said the source, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation.

A spokeswoman for Sajjan declined to comment, while representatives for Freeland did not reply to requests for comment.

The troops, who first went to Ukraine in 2015, are due out at the end of March. Political and military sources had made clear the soldiers would stay longer, given continuing tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

Canada will not be sending any additional trainers, the source added.

The House of Commons defense committee recommended last December that Ottawa expand the mission, a message that Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada subsequently stressed in interviews with Canadian media.

Canada’s defense ministry said in December that the contingent had trained more than 10,000 members of the Ukrainian security forces.

The Canadian contingent is in western Ukraine, far removed from clashes between Ukrainian soldiers and Russian-backed separatists in the east of the country.

Freeland, a vocal critic of Russia’s move to annex Crimea in early 2014, said in a statement on Saturday that “we continue to condemn this violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the strongest terms.”

Canada, the United States and the European Union on Friday imposed new sanctions on a number of Russian officials to punish Moscow for its 2018 attack on three Ukrainian ships and the seizure of Crimea, which had been part of Ukraine.

The Canadian trainers are in Ukraine as part of a larger mission that involves the United States, Britain, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden.

(Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Peter Cooney)

Pompeo Tells Senators They Don’t “Truly Care About Yemeni Lives” After Vote

This week the Senate voted to cease and desist US military cooperation with allies Saudi Arabia and UAE in waging the war in Yemen, which according to the United Nations has created one of the worst humanitarian disasters in recent history. The Wednesday vote was was 54 to 46, including seven Republicans voting with the Democrats.

The “war powers” legislation has been widely seen as a direct rebuke of Trump’s foreign policy amid broader pushback over his defense of Saudi Arabia in the wake of last year’s Jamal Khashoggi killing at the Saudi embassy in Istanbul. The invocation of the War Powers Act of 1973 expressly prohibits US military action not previously approved by Congress.

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Image via Tasnim News Agency

A House vote is expected soon, which would require President Trump to immediately withdraw American military support from the Saudi-led coalition. Trump said in December he would veto the Senate resolution if it ever reached his desk, which now appears likely.

Meanwhile Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday heaped criticism on Congress for seeking to end Washington support for military efforts in Yemen, saying that if US lawmakers “truly care about Yemeni lives”, they would back Riyadh.

Speaking in response to the Senate resolution, Pompeo said further: 

We all want this conflict to end. We all want to improve the dire humanitarian situation. But the Trump administration fundamentally disagrees that curbing our assistance to the Saudi-led coalition is the way to achieve these goals.

Predictably, Pompeo framed US involvement in Yemen in terms of preventing Iranian expansion in the broader Middle East. 

Pompeo continued: 

If we truly care about Saudi lives, you’d want to stop Iran-backed Houthis from launching missiles into Riyadh. If you truly care about Arab lives in the region, you’d support allied efforts to prevent Iran from extending its authoritarian rule from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea and on down to Yemen.

Thus Trump will likely also frame any veto action as a move against Iran, which the US has long considered enemy #1 in the region. 

For years, the United States has been providing logistics, intelligence sharing and arms sales to the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The U.S. military also provided aerial refueling to coalition jets, but the administration suspended that support in November.

The Trump administration has long blamed Iran and proxy Shia Houth forces for perpetuating the conflict which has now taken tens of thousands of lives. 

* * *

The Senate has passed “war powers” legislation ordering the president to cease and desist his cooperation with Saudi Arabia in the destruction of Yemen.

A House vote is expected soon, which would throw the issue to the president who has promised a veto. Will there be political fallout for a president failing to accede to the will of Congress on matters of war and peace? Tune in to the Ron Paul Liberty Report:

It looks like another Middle East proxy war is to continue indefinitely. 

The Ever-Changing Time-Line Of Trump’s Trade Deal With China

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Trump has changed his tune on a trade deal with China so many times it’s hard to count.

  1. In December, Trump gave China 90 days to conclude a deal Otherwise. Trump said he would boost tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from the current 10%.Those 90 days ended March 1.

  2. On December 31, I noted Trump Hails “Big Progress” on Trade Deal With China. I commented “Supposedly there is ‘big progress’ on a comprehensive trade deal with China. Color me skeptical.”

  3. On January 19, I noted China Pledges US Buying Spree to Reduce Trade Surplus With US to Zero By 2024. I commented “In discussions that are not yet public, and will likely be empty promises, sources say China Offers a Path to Eliminate U.S. Trade Imbalance.”

  4. On February 22, the Washington Post reported Trump says he expects to meet with China’s Xi and finalize new trade deal but Trump would not rule out extending the deadline beyond March 1.

  5. On February 24, Trump Tweeted there was “substantial progress on intellectual property” and suspended tariffs.

  6. On February 25, I noted Hooray! “Substantial” Progress With China (Just Don’t Ask Where) in response to Trump’s Tweets.

  7. At the end of February, Trump expected a small delay in signing.

  8. On March 2, I noted Trump Assails WTO “Straitjacket”, Attempts Pocket Veto of Entire Organization.

  9. On March 12, the Washington Post stated U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer told the Senate Finance Committee “Our hope is that we are in the final weeks” of negotiations. However, Schumer said on the Senate floor, “It is abundantly clear that China is playing us.”

  10. On March 13, Trump stated that he is in No Rush to Complete China Trade Deal. “I think things are going along very well – we’ll just see what the date is,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

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Drum Roll Please…….

Today, Bloomberg reports China and U.S. to Push Back Trump-Xi Meeting to at Least April

The key words here are “at least” April. Lighthizer warned ‘major issues’ remained outstanding in talks.

90 Days Till Who Knows When

We have gone from the certainty of “90 days or else” to canceled tariffs and who knows when.

As I said at the outset, there will be a deal, just don’t expect much substance to it or for China to honor it if there is.

Meanwhile, I am sure a pause in Tariffs and a delay in the deal suits China just fine.

For the record, I think the pause in tariffs is a good thing because tariffs are a bad idea in the first place. US farmers were getting killed by China’s retaliations.

Any deal that eliminates tariffs and retaliations will be a good thing, even if it otherwise accomplishes nothing.

The Ever-Changing Time-Line Of Trump’s Trade Deal With China

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Trump has changed his tune on a trade deal with China so many times it’s hard to count.

  1. In December, Trump gave China 90 days to conclude a deal Otherwise. Trump said he would boost tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from the current 10%.Those 90 days ended March 1.

  2. On December 31, I noted Trump Hails “Big Progress” on Trade Deal With China. I commented “Supposedly there is ‘big progress’ on a comprehensive trade deal with China. Color me skeptical.”

  3. On January 19, I noted China Pledges US Buying Spree to Reduce Trade Surplus With US to Zero By 2024. I commented “In discussions that are not yet public, and will likely be empty promises, sources say China Offers a Path to Eliminate U.S. Trade Imbalance.”

  4. On February 22, the Washington Post reported Trump says he expects to meet with China’s Xi and finalize new trade deal but Trump would not rule out extending the deadline beyond March 1.

  5. On February 24, Trump Tweeted there was “substantial progress on intellectual property” and suspended tariffs.

  6. On February 25, I noted Hooray! “Substantial” Progress With China (Just Don’t Ask Where) in response to Trump’s Tweets.

  7. At the end of February, Trump expected a small delay in signing.

  8. On March 2, I noted Trump Assails WTO “Straitjacket”, Attempts Pocket Veto of Entire Organization.

  9. On March 12, the Washington Post stated U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer told the Senate Finance Committee “Our hope is that we are in the final weeks” of negotiations. However, Schumer said on the Senate floor, “It is abundantly clear that China is playing us.”

  10. On March 13, Trump stated that he is in No Rush to Complete China Trade Deal. “I think things are going along very well – we’ll just see what the date is,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

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Drum Roll Please…….

Today, Bloomberg reports China and U.S. to Push Back Trump-Xi Meeting to at Least April

The key words here are “at least” April. Lighthizer warned ‘major issues’ remained outstanding in talks.

90 Days Till Who Knows When

We have gone from the certainty of “90 days or else” to canceled tariffs and who knows when.

As I said at the outset, there will be a deal, just don’t expect much substance to it or for China to honor it if there is.

Meanwhile, I am sure a pause in Tariffs and a delay in the deal suits China just fine.

For the record, I think the pause in tariffs is a good thing because tariffs are a bad idea in the first place. US farmers were getting killed by China’s retaliations.

Any deal that eliminates tariffs and retaliations will be a good thing, even if it otherwise accomplishes nothing.

Oil Rises As Saudi Extends Production Cuts Through April

President Trump isn’t going to like this.

Offering the first indication that the OPEC+ cartel of major oil exporters intends to extend cuts, Saudi Arabia has reportedly told its clients that they will receive significantly less oil than they had requested in April, extending deeper-than-agreed oil production cuts into a second month, Bloomberg reported.

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The report, which provoked a spike in oil prices, suggests that “Riyadh is determined to regain control of the oil market as prices remain well below the level that many OPEC members need to cover their government spending.” Oil rose as much as 1% on the news, before fading some gains.

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However, the extension isn’t all that surprising: Responding to Trump, who demanded in a tweet that OPEC do something to curb rising oil prices, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said last month that “we are taking it easy, 25 countries are taking a very slow and measured approach.”

Aramco, Saudi’s state-owned oil producer, has given customers their allocations for the next month, and they’re some 635,000 barrels short of what refiners had asked for.

With Venezuela output falling further due to U.S. sanctions and power blackouts, oil refiners put in requests – or nominations in industry jargon – for Saudi crude of more than 7.6 million barrels a day for April, the person said. However, the kingdom will supply overseas customers with less than 7 million barrels a day, 635,000 barrels less than refiners asked for however, they said.

The second consecutive month of deep production cuts shows the world’s largest oil exporter is determined to re-balance the market more quickly even though events in Venezuela have left some refiners short of crude. The crisis has worsened a deficit of so-called heavy-sour crude that many refiners use to make diesel.

Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil monopoly, decided its monthly nominations over the weekend and told clients early on Monday their individual allocations. Although not identical, Saudi crude can be used as an alternative to Venezuelan crude and is also a good alternative for Iranian oil, also in short supply due to U.S. sanctions.

OPEC+ agreed late last year to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day through the end of March as producers scrambled to reverse a stunning drop in oil prices late last year. The cuts have sent exports – primarily to the US – tumbling.

Of course, right now, the opportunity to have an outsize impact on the global oil market is almost too good to pass up for Saudi, as falling Venezuelan crude output and the coming expiry of US waivers on Iranian oil sales could continue to cut into supplies, particularly since Saudi crude is a good substitute for Iranian and Venezuelan crude, unlike US shale oil.

UK PM May considers delaying Brexit deadline: Bloomberg

February 25, 2019

(Reuters) – British Prime Minister Theresa May is considering a plan to delay Brexit to ensure the UK does not leave the European Union without a deal, Bloomberg reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the situation.

May will propose that her cabinet discuss extending the March 29 deadline at a meeting on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported. May would announce the conclusions of the meeting to parliament later in the day, it said.

Sterling jumped to a four-week high against the dollar after the report.

The Sun newspaper said, without citing sources, that May would open the door to a delay by proposing formally ruling out a “no-deal” Brexit scenario.

Seeking to delay Brexit would be a change of stance for the prime minister, who said on Monday it was no way to solve the impasse in parliament over the exit deal she has negotiated with Brussels.

The UK cannot extend the Brexit deadline unilaterally, however, and needs the European Union to sign on to the idea.

The Guardian newspaper reported on Sunday that the EU was determined to avoid a short extension only to have to revisit the issue in the summer when the mood in parliament is unlikely to have changed.

May put off a vote in parliament on her deal to March 12, just 17 days before Britain is due to leave the EU.

(Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Sonya Hepinstall)

7 Days to Tariffs — Donald Trump Projects ‘Very Good Chance’ for U.S.-China Trade Deal

WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 22: U.S. President Donald Trump (L) speaks during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He (R) as other U.S. officials look on in the Oval Office of the White House February 22, 2019 in Washington, DC. Liu is in Washington with the Chinese delegation to participate …

President Donald Trump met with Special Envoy for President Xi Jinping Friday, promoting great promise for a trade deal and openness to extending the tariff truce deadline.

The current round of U.S.-China trade talks began Thursday and have made so much progress, according to Treasury Sec. Steve Mnuchin, that the Chinese delegation has extended their trip for meetings to continue through the weekend. Mnuchin joined president Trump in an Oval Office meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He Friday. The president and officials gathered answered questions for the press at the start of that meeting.

“Speaking for the United States, I would say it’s probably more likely that a deal does happen,” President Trump said of a potential trade deal with China.

“I think we have a very good chance of making a deal…both parties want to make it a meaningful deal,” President Trump said at the meeting with Liu, who was also there as special envoy for Chinese President Xi Jinping. Liu does not always carry the “special envoy” designation; this was the second time he has carried it on a trip to the U.S. It indicated he may have had stronger bargaining power during negotiations.

President Trump and U.S. Ambassador Robert Lighthizer engaged in a brief tense exchange when Lighthizer attempted to correct the president on MOUs (memorandum of understanding). Trump answered a reporter saying MOUs would be short term when Lighthizer broke in: “An MOU is a contract. It’s the way trade agreements are generally used. People refer to it like it’s a term sheet. It’s not a term sheet. It’s an actual contract between the two parties.”

Lighthizer was then asked the same question posed to Trump and he said MOUs “last while they last.” Trump cut back in, “By the way, I disagree. I think that a memorandum of understanding is not a contract to the extent that we want.” He went on saying they could do an MOU or not, that he didn’t care, then asked Lighthizer directly, “But if you do a memorandum, how long will it take to put that into a final, binding contract?” Lighthizer relented with a clap and said, “From now on we’re not using the words memorandum of understanding any more.”

“We’re going to use the term ‘trade agreement.’ All right? No more. We’ll never use the term. We’ll have the same document, it’s going to be called a trade agreement. We’re never going to use MOU again,” Lighthizer went on, to which Trump responded, “I like that much better.”

Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to a 90-day truce on tariff increases during which trade negotiators from each side would hammer out a deal. That meeting took place at the G20 Argentina on December 1. Trump has been adamant any deal must include an end to “unfair” trading practices and Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property.

Trump suggested to Liu Friday he was open to extending the March 1 tariff truce deadline for a deal. The U.S. president will “probably” meet with Xi in March at Mar-a-Lago to work out “finer points” of a trade deal.

Agriculture Sec. Sonny Perdue announced Friday that during the Oval Office meeting the Chinese pledged to purchase an additional ten million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. This comes as China had placed tariffs on the U.S. export in retaliation against U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and prior to Trump and Xi’s 90-day trade truce that is set to end March 1. Perdue praised Trump for “bringing China to the table” and called the commitment a “Show of good faith by the Chinese. Also indications of more good news to come.”

President Trump pointed to China’s “many years of tremendous success at the expense of the United States” in bad trade policies under America’s past leaders. He has previously pointed to the massive trade imbalance between the two nations, calling for reciprocal trade.

He did confirm to reporters “We have a deal on currency and currency manipulation.”

Trump said he spoke for the Chinese president and vice premier as well as himself when he said they want to make the trade deal a “meaningful” one.

Michelle Moons is a White House Correspondent for Breitbart News — follow on Twitter @MichelleDiana and Facebook

Trump says inclined to extend China trade deadline, to meet Xi soon

February 22, 2019

By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday there was “a very good chance” the United States would strike a deal with China to end their trade war and that he was inclined to extend his March 1 deadline to reach an agreement.

U.S. and Chinese negotiators had made progress and would continue this week’s round of negotiations through the weekend, Trump told reporters in the White House as he met his top negotiators and their counterpart, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

“I think that we both feel there’s a very good chance a deal will happen,” Trump said.

Extending the deadline would mean Trump would put on hold a scheduled tariff increase to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports into the United States.

That would prevent a further escalation in a trade war that has already disrupted commerce in goods worth hundreds of billions of dollars, slowed global economic growth and roiled markets.

Optimism the two sides would find a way to end the trade war lifted stocks on Friday, especially technology shares, while oil prices rose to their highest since mid-November, with Brent crude reaching a high of $67.73 a barrel. [.N] [O/R]

Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the two sides had reached an agreement on currency. Trump declined to provide details, but U.S. officials have long expressed concerns that China’s yuan is undervalued, giving China a trade advantage and partly offsetting U.S. tariffs.

The president said he would probably meet China’s President Xi Jinping in March in Florida, and the biggest decisions on the terms of the trade deal could come when they meet.

Xi sent a letter to Trump which an aide to Liu read out at the briefing on Friday. Xi called on negotiators to work hard to strike a deal that benefits both.

Trump indicated a deal with China may extend beyond trade to encompass Chinese telecommunications companies Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp.

The Justice Department has accused Huawei of conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions on Iran and of stealing robotic technology from T-Mobile US Inc.

Chinese peer ZTE was last year prevented from buying essential components from U.S. firms after pleading guilty to similar charges, crippling its operations.

TRUMP TEAM TENSION

Trump appeared at odds with his top negotiator, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, on the preliminary terms that his team is outlining in memorandums of understanding for a deal with China.

Trump said he did not like MOUs, because they are short term, and he wanted a long-term deal.

“I don’t like MOUs because they don’t mean anything,” Trump said. “Either you are going to make a deal or you’re not.”

Lighthizer responded testily that MOUs were binding, but that he would never use the term again.

Reuters reported exclusively on Wednesday that the two sides were drafting the language for six MOUs covering the most difficult issues in the trade talks that would require structural economic change in China.

That marked the most progress the two sides have made toward a deal. But negotiators have struggled this week to agree on specific language within those memorandums to address tough U.S. demands for structural changes in China’s economy, sources familiar with the talks have told Reuters.

The MOUs would provide an outline for a deal, for specific details to be agreed by negotiators later. They are common in trade negotiations.

An industry official briefed on the talks said that if a framework deal can be reached, it may take another three to six months to fill in the details, and the two sides remain far apart on a mechanism to verify and enforce follow-through commitments China makes.

Lighthizer said negotiators had made a lot of progress this week on forced technology transfers, one of the more difficult issues. The U.S. alleges foreign firms in China come under pressure to transfer their technology to Chinese firms if they want to operate there. China denies this.

The two sides had struggled this week to agree on the specific language for the MOUs on other tough issues. Those include cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, agriculture and non-tariff barriers to trade.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Friday urged the U.S. government to ensure the deal was comprehensive and addressed core issues, rather than one based on more Chinese short-term purchases of goods.

Trump has demanded that China and other top trade partners take action to balance trade with the United States.

China has pledged to increase purchases of agricultural produce, energy, semiconductors and industrial goods to reduce its trade surplus.

China committed to buying an additional 10 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans on Friday, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said on Twitter.The commitments are a “show of good faith by the Chinese” and “indications of more good news to come,” Perdue wrote.

China was the top buyer of U.S. soybeans before the trade war, but Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans slashed business that had been worth $12 billion annually.

(Additional reporting by David Lawder in Washington, writing by Simon Webb; editing by Marguerita Choy and Tom Brown)

Russia extends detention of ex-U.S. marine held for spying: RIA

February 22, 2019

MOSCOW (Reuters) – A Russian court on Friday ruled to extend by three months the detention of former U.S. marine Paul Whelan who is being held on suspicion of spying, the RIA news agency reported.

Whelan, who holds U.S., British, Canadian and Irish passports, was detained in a Moscow hotel room on Dec. 28 and accused of espionage, charges he denies. If found guilty, he could be imprisoned for up to 20 years.

The court in Moscow ordered Whelan be held in pre-trial detention until May 28, RIA reported, extending an earlier ruling to keep him in custody until Feb. 28.

(Reporting by Maria Tsvetkova; writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Gareth Jones)

Deutsche Bank Discussed Extending Trump Loan Maturity Over Default Fears

Deutsche Bank’s PR campaign to get out ahead of whatever “Kerosene Maxine’s” subpoenas might uncover led to another not-altogether-unexpected revelation Wednesday morning when Bloomberg reported more details about the German lender’s efforts to distance itself from the soon-to-be president.

We reported previously that Deutsche sought to limit its exposure to Trump during the run-up to his 2016 electoral victory for two reasons: it feared the public blowback that any association with Trump’s divisive campaign rhetoric might bring, and it also wanted to avoid the eventuality of Trump defaulting on a loan while in office – which would force the bank into the uncomfortable position of needing to seize the assets of the President of the United States.

Trump

For these reasons, senior bank executives vetoed a request by the Trump Organization to expand a loan taken out by the Trump Organization (it wanted to use the extra money for renovations at Turnberry, one of its golf clubs). And now, BBG reported that the bank considered extending repayment dates for the Trump Organizations’ outstanding loans until the end of a potential second term in 2025 to avoid the possibility of Trump defaulting while in office – a possibility that was discussed by members of Deutsche’s management board, including then-CEO John Cryan. Extending the deadline for the loans, which came due in 2023 and 2024, wouldn’t have been that big of a stretch for the bank, given the timing. But still, the bank ultimately decided against the plan.

In an interesting twist – and as was previously reported – then-retail banking chief Christian Sewing, who is now Deutsche’s CEO, was in favor of extending more credit to the Trump Organization, which had heretofore had a profitable relationship with Deutsche, but he was overruled by the bank’s reputational risk committee.

Representatives for DN declined to comment on the story, but Eric Trump, speaking on behalf of the Trump Organization, slammed the story as “nonsense.”

A spokesman for Deutsche Bank declined to comment, and the people with knowledge of the discussions said they didn’t know why the bank ultimately decided not to extend the loans. The White House didn’t respond to requests for comment.

“This story is complete nonsense,” Eric Trump, a son of the president and an executive vice president of the Trump Organization, said in an email. “We are one of the most under-leveraged real estate companies in the country. Virtually all of our assets are owned free and clear, and the very few that do have mortgages are a small fraction relative to the value of the asset. These are traditional loans, no different than any other real estate developer would carry as part of a comparable portfolio.”

The bank’s outstanding loans to the Trump Org include $125 million for Trump National Doral Miami, which comes due in 2023, as well as a $170 million for Trump International Hotel in Washington and another loan on its tower in Chicago, both of which come due in 2024.

Between 2012 and 2016, Trump borrowed more than $620 million from Deutsche Bank and another lender called Ladder Capital (where the son of the Trump Organization’s longtime CFO was a top loan executive), to finance projects in Manhattan, Chicago, Washington and a Miami suburb. Of that total, the Trump org received $282 million from Ladder for four Manhattan properties.

The loans differed in structure. And analysis of government databases which contain filings related to local properties, the loans haven’t changed since Trump’s financial disclosure.

The loans are split between variable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages. Some are interest-only loans, with balloon payments due at maturity, according to property records and securities filings.

The maturities on Trump’s Deutsche Bank loans haven’t changed since his preelection financial disclosure, filings show. Government-run databases containing local property filings for New York, Washington, Chicago and Miami-Dade County don’t show any changes in the terms of Trump’s mortgages.

But those details likely won’t stop Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff from examining Trump’s lending relationship with the bank, harassing his longtime banker Rosemary Vrablic, and publicize the bank’s due diligence on Trump after 2016, revelations that, we’re sure, will include a few embarrassing nuggets about the perceived “risks” associated with lending to Trump that, we imagine, should play well in the press.

Justice Thomas assails landmark U.S. libel ruling that protects media

February 19, 2019

By Andrew Chung

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Conservative Justice Clarence Thomas on Tuesday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to reconsider its landmark 1964 ruling that made it harder for public figures to sue for defamation, a precedent that has served as powerful protection for the news media.

Thomas took aim at the unanimous ruling in the libel case known as New York Times Co. v. Sullivan in an opinion he wrote concurring with the court’s decision to end a defamation suit against Bill Cosby filed by a woman who said the comedian raped her in 1974.

Thomas, one of the high court’s most conservative justices, said the 55-year-old decision was not rooted in the U.S. Constitution. That ruling and subsequent ones extending it “were policy-driven decisions masquerading as constitutional law,” Thomas wrote, expressing views in harmony with President Donald Trump, who often attacks the media and has advocated making it easier to sue news organizations and publishers for defamation.

Thomas agreed with his fellow justices in refusing to consider reviving a defamation lawsuit against Cosby by Kathrine McKee, an actress and former Las Vegas showgirl who said the entertainer falsely called her a liar after she accused him of rape.

McKee was represented in the case by attorney Charles Harder, who represented Trump in a defamation suit brought against the president by adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Daniels has said she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, which he denies. McKee had appealed a court ruling in Massachusetts that threw out her lawsuit.

The New York Times v. Sullivan ruling has served as a safeguard for media reporting on public figures.

Trump in January 2018 called current defamation laws “a sham and a disgrace” following the publication of a book about the White House by author Michael Wolff called “Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House,” which among other things questioned the president’s mental health.

The high court’s 1964 ruling held that in order to win a libel suit, the plaintiff must demonstrate that the offending statement was made with “actual malice,” meaning knowledge that it was false or reckless disregard as to whether it was false.

The case involved a lawsuit against the New York Times, a newspaper that Trump often criticizes for its coverage of him.

Thomas wrote that “we should carefully examine the original meaning of the First and Fourteenth Amendments,” referring to the constitutional provisions protecting freedom of speech, freedom of the press and the application of those rights to the states.

“If the Constitution does not require public figures to satisfy an actual-malice standard in state-law defamation suits, then neither should we,” Thomas wrote.

Thomas said defamation law was historically a matter for the states, and should remain that way.

“The states are perfectly capable of striking an acceptable balance between encouraging robust public discourse and providing a meaningful remedy for reputational harm,” Thomas wrote.

None of the other eight justices joined Thomas in his opinion.

COSBY PRISON SENTENCE

Cosby, 81, was convicted in April 2018 of three counts of aggravated indecent assault for the drugging and sexual assault of Andrea Constand, a former Temple University administrator, in 2004. He was sentenced last September to three to 10 years in prison.

The Supreme Court last October snubbed Cosby’s appeal in another defamation case, allowing a lawsuit by former model Janice Dickinson to go forward against the entertainer best known for his starring role in the 1980s hit television series “The Cosby Show.”

McKee went public with her rape accusation in a 2014 interview with the New York Daily News. She is one of more than 50 women who have accused Cosby of sexual assault dating back to the 1960s by using drugs to incapacitate them.

An attorney for Cosby then sent a letter to the newspaper, suggesting McKee was a liar and calling her an unreliable source. In the letter, Cosby’s lawyer said McKee had admitted lying to get hired as a showgirl.

McKee sued Cosby for defamation in 2015 in federal court in Boston, saying the letter made false statements and harmed her reputation.

A trial judge in 2017 dismissed her claims, saying the lawsuit was barred by the First Amendment guarantee of free speech. The Boston-based 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that ruling.

The appeals court said that by deliberately wading into the controversy, McKee had become a public figure, requiring her to prove Cosby acted with malice to win a defamation claim.

McKee told the justices that she “should not be victimized twice over” by making it harder for her to prove defamation merely because she went public as an alleged victim.

(Reporting by Andrew Chung. Additional reporting by Lawrence Hurley; Editing by Will Dunham)

German Poll Shows Germans Stunningly Anti-U.S.-Government

Eric Zuesse, originally posted at strategic-culture.org

On February 8th, the NATO-supporting Atlantik-Bruecke, or Atlantic Bridge, issued their poll, “Vertrauen in der Krise” or “Trust During the Crisis”, and it finds, from scientifically sampling 2,500 Germans, that there is very little trust or confidence in U.S. leadership, and that there is less dis-trust both of Russian and of Chinese leadership than of American.

Atlantic Bridge was founded by NATO and the Council on Foreign Relations in 1952 in order to make Germans hostile toward the Soviet Union, and favorable toward the United States. It was the prototype for America’s Atlantic Council, which became founded in 1961 — the same year as Eisenhower’s Farewell Address warning against the rise of the “military-industrial complex.” It was created in order to propagandize for higher U.S. military spending to strengthen NATO. When the Cold War ended on the Russian side in 1991 with the breakup of the Soviet Union and the end of communism and the end of the Warsaw Pact military alliance that had been set up by the U.S.S.R. in 1955 to defend the communist bloc against NATO, U.S. President George Herbert Walker Bush secretly instructed America’s European vassal nations on the night of 24 February 1990 to continue secretly the war against Russia and any nation that isn’t hostile against Russia, and so NATO has swallowed up all of the Warsaw Pact nations, right up to Russia’s borders, and is now trying to merge into NATO a former part of the Soviet Union itself, Ukraine, after a U.S. coup in Ukraine in February 2014 installed a racist-fascist, ideologically nazi, anti-Russian regime at Russia’s doorstep.

Here are the new German poll’s main findings:

More than four-fifths of the respondents (84.6 percent) rate the German-American relationship as negative or very negative. Only 10.4 percent find it very positive or rather positive. A clear majority (57.6 percent) argues for a greater distance between Germany and the United States. Only 13.1 percent want a closer approach; 26 percent want to keep the current arrangement. …

Almost half of respondents (42.3 percent) consider China a better partner for Germany than the US. Conversely, only 23.1 percent believe that the US is a more reliable partner than China. …

[Concerning Germany’s current foreign policies,] only 18.6 percent see a positive impact, 34 percent a negative. …

Asked about the currently most dangerous global trouble spots, only 1.9 percent of the respondents named the expansion of the Russian zone of influence. The growing influence of China is seen by 2.2 percent as the biggest threat. …

Neoconservatives (that is to say, supporters of expanding the U.S. empire) are quoted as being alarmed by these findings:

Professor Burkhard Schwenker, Chairman, Roland Berger Advisory Council, Head of the Atlantic Bridge Working Group Foreign and Security Policy and Vice-Chairman: “In view of the great loss of confidence in the United States, we must engage more than ever in our discussions with and about America. and across the Atlantic, at all levels. That’s why the Atlantic Bridge is increasingly devoting itself to this exchange.”

Dr. David Deißner, Managing Director of Atlantik-Brücke, adds: “The current dissonances and the mood in Germany show that the common values and interests between the transatlantic partners have to be discussed openly, without fear of controversy.” …

Dr. Michael Werz, Senior Fellow, [U.S. Democratic Party] Center for American Progress, Member of the Board of Atlantik-Brücke, commented: “Germans must leave the comfort of neutrality behind and, despite all legitimate criticism of the current US administration [since he propagandizes for Democratic Party billionaires instead of for Republican Party billionaires who donate to the current U.S. President], not of anti American resentment, make clear the dangers posed by the authoritarian systems in Russia and China.”…

Dr. Norbert Röttgen MdB (CDU / CSU), Chairman, Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag, Member of the Board of Atlantik-Brücke: “The survey shows that we need to convince the citizens of the strategic needs of a German engagement in a radically changing world. Without the backing of the population, foreign policy can not be pursued.”

Clearly, this poll’s stark findings shocked these propagandists for increased German purchases of weaponry from firms such as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics.

This poll shows that today’s German Government does not represent the German public — at least not on these central issues of German foreign and national-security policies. One may say the same thing about the U.S.: that its Government does not represent its public (on practically everything, actually).

The continuing ability of the U.S. regime to justify its many foreign invasions and coups as being humanitarian instead of what they always have been, which is raw grabs for extending the U.S. empire, is severely jeopardized when the approval of U.S. leadership declines among the publics in the lands that are ruled by aristocracies that (like Germany) are allied with and subordinate to America’s aristocracy — the 585 U.S. billionaires. This is especially  the case in Germany, which is currently occupied by thirty-two thousand U.S. troops.

On 2 July 2018, the U.S. ‘Defense’ Department’s newspaper, Stars and Stripes, headlined “Former Army Europe boss: Pulling US troops from Germany would be a big win for Russia”, as if Russia instead of America were doing “regime change” everywhere it can, and it opened: “A large military drawdown in Germany would be a ‘colossal mistake,’ says the former top Army commander in Europe about a possible scaling back of the U.S. presence on the Continent, at a time when Russia has become more assertive.” The article went on to say:

There are now about 32,000 permanently stationed American troops in Germany, which hosted the majority of the 300,000 troops stationed in Europe during the Cold War.

The Washington Post reported on Friday that the Pentagon is analyzing the cost and effects of returning some or all troops in Germany to the U.S. and possibly sending some to Poland instead. The review began after President Donald Trump, who is at odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on a range of issues, expressed interest in withdrawing U.S. forces.

So, the question naturally arises as to whether the German public support the U.S. President regarding this matter. The present writer has web-searched the combination “Rückzug der US-Truppen aus Deutschland” and “umfrage” (or “withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany” and “poll”) and failed to find any polling of Germans on that question. For some reason, this question — which should have been repeatedly and heavily and constantly polled among the German public — isn’t showing up as having been polled, at all, ever. What could possibly explain that mysterious situation? Why wasn’t the question included in the Atlantik Bruecke’s latest poll? Could it be that Germany’s master, the U.S. regime, simply hasn’t permitted that question to be polled in Germany? Or is there an alternative hypothesis that’s likelier? If so, what would that possibly be? Perhaps the people in power know already — or fear too much — that the German people want the American occupation of their country to end.

Here are two relevant headlines from the recent past:

“‘Russia should be in G7, whether you like it or not’ – Trump says on way to summit”

and,

“G7 leaders urge Russia to stop undermining democracies”.

And here is the reality that all of the attendees at the G7 contradict and that is denied by the entire U.S.-NATO ‘argument’ — denied by their argument against Russia, and for the U.S. and its allies. They all simply hide this fundamental reality. But perhaps the German people are somehow coming finally to recognize that they’ve been deceived for a long time and need now to replace their current leaders (just as Americans do, and just as the people in all countries that are allied with the U.S. aristocracy do).

The extent of the lying on this has exceeded almost anyone’s expectations, but maybe the German people are coming, somehow, to recognize this ugly fact.

Have you read any of this in the mainstream press? It’s all news, but did you learn of it there? If not, why not?

—————

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

Famed Cullinan mine banks on big diamonds to drive down debt

February 16, 2019

By Emma Rumney and Barbara Lewis

CULLINAN, South Africa (Reuters) – The owner of one of the world’s most famous diamond mines could be about a decade away from clearing its multi-million-dollar debts, in a sign of the struggles facing an industry assailed by synthetic rivals and uncertain demand.

Petra Diamonds bought Cullinan in 2008, aiming to breathe new life into the South African mine renowned for yielding the largest rough gem diamond ever found – 3,106 carats – and being the world’s main source of rare blue diamonds.

The London-listed miner, which acquired Cullinan from industry leader De Beers, borrowed heavily to revamp the facility and began mining a new section of ore last July.

Petra told Reuters its debts from the mine stood at around 65 percent of its overall $650 million in borrowing, which would represent about $420 million.

Cullinan’s general manager Juan Kemp added that it could take “between five and 10 years” from the opening of the new section to clear the debts related to the mine. That goes beyond the 2022 maturity of Petra’s bond notes.

The company says it expects to generate free cash flow this year – a target it had hoped to reach in 2017 before being derailed by strikes and construction delays – and start reducing its debts.

Kemp said one thought kept him awake at night: “When will we get that next big stone?”

Ben Davis, mining analyst at Liberum, said the diamond prices Petra had achieved were below market expectations.

“Everyone is very much hoping, for the sake of the equity holders and debt holders, it will deliver more higher-quality stones,” he added.

Jacques Breytenbach, Petra’s finance director, said pricing at Cullinan was variable from one period to the next, and that the market tended to be weaker at the end of the calendar year due to destocking. An increase in diamond tenders in the second half of Petra’s financial year would make a big difference to cash generation, he said.

The miner’s difficulties reflect in part the problems facing the industry – which often takes years to recover huge investments – including new competition from synthetic diamonds and sluggish demand, especially for small stones.

In a sign of the times, De Beers, owned by Anglo American, last year abandoned its decades-old policy of refusing to sell man-made diamonds as jewelry.

GRAPHIC – Prices of Cullinan diamonds: https://tmsnrt.rs/2UUwiNG

DIAMOND PRICES

Man-made diamonds require less investment than mining natural stones and can offer more attractive margins.

Synthetic producers spend around $300-500 per carat produced, according to a 2018 report by Bain & Company. De Beers’ lab-grown diamonds sell for $800 per carat.

Petra has to shift 20,000 tonnes of earth at Cullinan to yield one cup of diamonds, at an average cost in the first half of their financial year of $55 per carat, leaving it with a margin of $41 per carat.

Industry experts say synthetic production accounts for a small percentage of the market, but is growing fast. De Beers is investing $94 million over four years to build a U.S. factory that will churn out 500,000 carats a year, for example, while Chinese producers are stepping up output.

Prices are also under pressure. Diamond miners say sales are seasonal and fall off after the Christmas rush, but the industry’s giants have nonetheless reported weaker prices.

Alrosa, the world’s biggest diamond seller by volume, said in January sales were down 44 percent year on year, while De Beers, the biggest seller by value, said the first 2019 sales cycle was 25 percent lower than in 2018.

“Diamond prices have come under pressure from a toxic combination of deteriorating consumer confidence in China, growth in synthetic jewelry capacity, working capital finance withdrawal … and jewelry recycling,” Davis said.

The tougher landscape is widening the disparities within the diamond mining industry itself.

Big players, led by De Beers and Alrosa, have the money and technology to expand in places such as Namibia and Russia, while mid-tier miners like Petra, and smaller players look to eke out the resources from older mines.

Petra gained control of Cullinan, east of Pretoria, for $80 million.

Previous owner De Beers said at the time that the sale was part of a strategic review to shed unprofitable mines (https://reut.rs/2BFlThG). For Petra, the 116-year-old mine is its flagship project and its most capital-heavy, and thus central to shareholder confidence.

MURKY COLOR

A single large, valuable stone could bring in millions of dollars and lighten Petra’s debt load. So far, however, the only large stones recovered from the new mining section have been a murky color, and low quality.

Kemp said the new section, which analysis suggests should be rich, had yet to show what it can produce.

“We expect a large stone at some point,” he said.

In the absence of rarer gems and amid weak prices for small diamonds, averages for Cullinan stones have slipped from $140 per carat in the first half of its 2018 financial year to an expected $96 for the first half of this year – the lowest since 2010.

That helped prompt a 30-percent fall in Petra’s share price since it published prices in January, extending a steep decline over the previous two years. The miner has bought and developed four other African mines.

Small miners are more vulnerable to adverse industry trends than the bigger players, whose volumes improve the probability of success, according to Bernstein analyst Paul Gait.

“Their size allows the laws of large numbers to work on their side,” he said. “You’re not just reliant on the belief that in a few years’ time you will find a stone of 1,000 carats.”

($1 = 13.7679 rand)

(Editing by Pravin Char)

US Tax-Funded Planned Parenthood Is Lobbying States to Pass Laws Allowing Abortion Up to Moment of Birth

The roll out of extending abortion up to and even after birth is being pushed by Planned Parenthood, which receives $500-million in taxpayer funds per year. Only 25% of Americans who identify as being pro-choice believe that abortion should be available at any point in a pregnancy.

Is Debt China’s Achilles Heel? The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Internal Debt Trap

China’s credits to various countries along its much-discussed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the most ambitious infrastructure undertaking in history, have recently been criticized for drawing poor countries into a debt trap by extending huge credits. Myanmar is often cited, …

The post Is Debt China’s Achilles Heel? The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Internal Debt Trap appeared first on Global Research.

CBP preparing for migrant caravan at ports of entry

LAREDO, Texas — U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Office of Field Operations (OFO) continues to prepare for the potential arrival of thousands of people migrating in a caravan to the United States through the Southwest border. The eight ports of entry extending from Brownsville to Del Rio that comprise the Laredo Field Office (LFO) will soon begin Mobile Field Force (MFF) training to secure our nation’s borders.

“The MFF training consists of practical exercises designed to train officers on CBP’s special response tactics,” said Director of Field Operations, David P. Higgerson, Laredo Field Office. “As they train to respond to any incident that may occur at the ports of entry, our priority is still the safety and security of the American people, international travelers, and our communities while facilitating legitimate trade and travel.”

As the men and women of CBP conduct these drills, it is important for the traveling public to be aware of high visibility operations.

CBP is continually assessing the capabilities of our facilities and has been making — and will continue to make — necessary preparations. Preparations include participating in operational readiness exercises and the mobilization of resources, as needed, to ensure the facilitation of lawful trade and travel.

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UK trade minister says EU ‘irresponsible’ to refuse to reopen Brexit deal

February 3, 2019

LONDON (Reuters) – It would be irresponsible for the European Union to refuse to reopen negotiations over Britain’s exit deal, British trade minister Liam Fox said in an interview aired on Sunday.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she is seeking changes to the Withdrawal Agreement she agreed with Brussels last year in order to win the support of parliament. The EU has said the deal cannot be renegotiated.

“Are they really saying that they would rather not negotiate and end up in a ‘no-deal’ position?” Fox told Sky News in a pre-recorded interview. “It is in all our interests to get to that agreement and for the EU to say we are not going to even discuss it seems to me to be quite irresponsible.”

With less than two months until Britain is due to leave the European Union on March 29, the opposition Labour Party has said it is now inevitable that the government will have to request an extension to the Article 50 exit negotiation period.

Fox, who has previously spoken out strongly against delaying the exit date, said extending the negotiations without a deal in place would not solve anything, but it was “a very different argument” if Britain just needed more time to get the necessary legislation in place for a smooth exit.

He is the second senior minister to suggest such a delay may be needed, after Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Thursday Britain may need time to get legislation through.

“There is a big difference between if we had an agreement and we need some time to get the legalities done, that is one thing,” Fox said. “I think to extend simply because we hadn’t reached an agreement would not provide any impetus for that agreement to be reached.”

Fox said Britain would “be able to deal” with leaving the bloc without an agreement but it would not be in the country’s interests.

(Reporting by Kylie MacLellan; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Pentagon Says Several Thousand More Troops Are Being Sent To US-Mexico Border

The U.S. will be sending “several thousand” more troops to the southern border to provide additional support to Homeland Security, the Pentagon has confirmed.

The move comes as another migrant ‘caravan’ made its way to the border from Honduras.

RT reports: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested additional surveillance capability and concertina wire, Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan told reporters at the Pentagon on Tuesday.

“We’ve responded with, you know, here’s how many people it would take,” Shanahan said. However, he would not disclose the exact number. When asked how many troops would be headed to the border, he said “Several thousand, and I’ll kind of leave it at that.”

A Pentagon spokesman later followed that up, explaining that the Department of Defense is “currently sourcing the units involved and there will be an increase of a few thousand troops,” and that “we will provide more clarity on the numbers when we have it.”

All the troops are in a “support role” to civilian authorities and not engaged in law enforcement, Shanahan stressed.

President Donald Trump initially ordered almost 6,000 troops to the southern border in late October, as two migrant caravans trekked through Mexico. His critics accused him of a publicity stunt ahead of the November midterms.

Some 3,600 of those troops have since returned to their bases, but 2,300 soldiers still remain on the border. Earlier this month, Shanahan authorized extending their mission through the end of September 2019. Another 2,200 National Guard troops are deployed on the border as well.

That decision came within days of another “caravan” forming in Honduras and setting out for Mexico, with the US as their final destination. According to multiple reports, its numbers have swelled from the original 2,000 members to something like 12,000.

Tesla sees profit in every 2019 quarter, but faces logistics risks

January 30, 2019

By Alexandria Sage and Sonam Rai

(Reuters) – Tesla Inc warned on Wednesday it will need to begin building cars in China and lower the price of its Model 3 sedan to make money in every 2019 quarter, as it failed to meet Wall Street profit expectations at the end of 2018.

The company also announced that its chief financial officer, Deepak Ahuja, would retire, extending a slide in shares after hours to 4 percent.

Wednesday’s results offered a mix bag for investors as the company both expressed optimism that it could post a profit in the first quarter despite fewer deliveries of its flagship S and X vehicles, while warning of challenges such as logistics and global deliveries of its new Model 3.

Tesla is beginning to ship its Model 3 to Europe and Asia from California. To cut costs and transit times, Tesla plans to build a factory in China. It hopes to produce 500,000 vehicles a year there by the last quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020, a goal it originally expected to meet in 2018.

Musk announced a 7 percent workforce reduction earlier this month, saying it was crucial to cut costs so that the company could roll out lower-priced versions of its Model 3.

The cheapest Model 3 today is priced at $44,000 but Tesla hopes to get the cost down to $35,000.

Tesla said on Wednesday that Model 3 production volume at its Fremont, California factory would ramp up, ultimately reaching a long-promised 7,000 units per week by the end of the year.

Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin called Tesla’s results “somewhat weak, but largely as expected,” and expressed disappointment that the company did not announce it would soon begin building a $35,000 version of its Model 3.

“We think people have been too bullish about Tesla showing earnings power, and sustained positive cash from operations,” he said.

In a surprise announcement at the end of a conference call with analysts, Musk said CFO Ahuja would be replaced by Zach Kirkhorn, who has been at Tesla for nine years.

MORE CASH

Tesla is hoping that money saved from job cuts, together with ongoing improvements to manufacturing processes, will boost its margins and free cash flow, which widened to $909.6 million in the quarter after ending its third quarter at $881 million, excluding costs of systems for its solar business.

Tesla said it ended the quarter with $4.3 billion in cash after spending $325 million in capital expenses and said it could pay a $920 million convertible bond maturing in March.

Investors have been wondering whether Tesla will seek more capital, which many analysts believe will be necessary to fund ongoing projects, such as upcoming production in 2020 of the Model Y SUV, the building of factories in China and Europe, and the expansion of Tesla’s existing Nevada battery plant, the Gigafactory.

“Tesla has a fantastic brand, and by all accounts a fantastic product, but we’re worried it’s also fantastically expensive,” said Nicholas Hyett, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “2019 could prove a make-or-break year.”

The winding down of a federal subsidy this year will make all Tesla cars more expensive and could hurt sales. Some analysts have also expressed concerns that sales of the Model S and X – which carry higher margins – may slow due to the erosion of the tax credit.

Tesla said it expected lower S and X deliveries in the first quarter, given a “pull-forward in demand” in 2018 for those vehicles in 2018 when the subsidy was still available in full. Tesla recognizes revenue once a vehicle is delivered.

The company made a net profit of $139.5 million in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with a $311.5 million in the third quarter, when it benefited from regulatory credits.

(https://bit.ly/2Uv6szO)

Excluding items, Tesla earned $1.93 per share, missing expectations of $2.20 per share, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Tesla’s total revenue rose 5.9 percent to $7.23 billion, beating the analyst average estimate of $7.08 billion.

(Reporting by Sonam Rai in Bengaluru and Alexandria Sage in San Francisco; Editing by Bernard Orr and Lisa Shumaker)

Brexit date could be pushed back by a ‘couple of extra weeks’: Leadsom

January 26, 2019

By Costas Pitas

LONDON (Reuters) – The date Britain leaves the EU could be pushed back by a couple of weeks to give time for legislation to be approved by lawmakers, the leader of Britain’s lower house of parliament said, the most senior figure to make such a suggestion.

Britain, the world’s fifth largest economy, is due to leave the European Union on March 29 but Prime Minister Theresa May’s negotiated exit deal was rejected by lawmakers, leaving open the possibility of a disorderly Brexit.

Parliament will now vote on a series of amendments on Tuesday with the United Kingdom facing its deepest political crisis in half a century as it grapples with how, or even whether, to exit the European project it joined in 1973.

“We can get the legislation through and I think we do, in spite of everything, have a very strong relationship with our EU friends and neighbors and I am absolutely certain that if we needed a couple of extra weeks or something then that would be feasible,” Andrea Leadsom told the BBC.

Responding to the idea that this would mean extending the two-year Article 50 negotiation period, Leadsom, who is the organizer of government business in the lower house of parliament, told the BBC:

“It doesn’t necessarily mean that. I think we would want to think carefully about it. But as things stand I do feel that we can get, with the support of both Houses – the House of Commons and the House of Lords – with goodwill and a determination we can still get the legislation through in good time.”

A spokeswoman at May’s No. 10 Downing Street office said the government’s position had not changed.

“We are not considering an extension to article 50 and are committed to doing whatever it takes to have the statute books ready for when we leave the EU on March 29th this year.”

The uncertainty has prompted several businesses to warn of the threat to jobs and investment if Britain were to crash out of the EU, potentially disrupting food and medicine supplies, manufacturers and transportation.

(Reporting by Costas Pitas; editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Kirsten Donovan)

Zuckerberg to integrate WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook Messenger: NYT

January 25, 2019

(Reuters) – Facebook Inc Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg is planning to unify the underlying messaging infrastructure of the WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook Messenger services and incorporate end-to-end encryption into these apps, the New York Times reported on Friday.

The three services will, however, continue as stand-alone apps, the report said, citing four people involved in the effort.

Facebook said it is working on adding end-to-end encryption, which protects messages from being viewed by anyone except the participants in a conversation, to more of its messaging products, and considering ways to make it easier for users to connect across networks.

“There is a lot of discussion and debate as we begin the long process of figuring out all the details of how this will work,” a spokesperson said.

After the changes, a Facebook user, for instance, will be able send an encrypted message to someone who has only a WhatsApp account, according to the New York Times report.

Integrating the messaging services could make it harder for antitrust regulators to break up Facebook by undoing its acquisitions of WhatsApp and Instagram, said Sam Weinstein, a professor at the Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law.

“If Facebook is worried about that then one way it can defend itself is to integrate those services,” Weinstein said.

But Weinstein said breaking up Facebook is viewed as an “extreme remedy” by regulators, particularly in the United States, so concerns over antitrust scrutiny may not have been a factor behind the integration.

MAJOR TRADEOFFS

Some former Facebook security engineers and an outside encryption expert said the plan could be good news for user privacy, in particular by extending end-to-end encryption.

“I’m cautiously optimistic it’s a good thing,” said former Facebook Chief Security Officer Alex Stamos, who now teaches at Stanford University. “My fear was that they were going to drop end-to-end encryption.”

However, the technology does not always conceal metadata – information about who is talking to whom – sparking concern among some researchers that the data might be shared.

Any metadata integration likely will let Facebook learn more about users, linking identifiers such as phone numbers and email addresses for those using the services independently of each other.

Facebook could use that data to charge more for advertising and targeted services, although it also would have to forgo ads based on message content in Messenger and Instagram.

Other major tradeoffs will have to be made too, Stamos and others said.

Messenger allows strangers to contact people without knowing their phone numbers, for example, increasing the risk of stalking and approaches to children.

Systems based on phone numbers have additional privacy concerns, because governments and other entities can easily extract location information from them.

Stamos said he hoped Facebook would get public input from terrorism experts, child safety officers, privacy advocates and others and be transparent in its reasoning when it makes decisions on the details.

“It should be an open process, because you can’t have it all,” Stamos said.

(Reporting by Munsif Vengattil in Bengaluru, Jan Wolfe in Washington and Joseph Menn in San Francisco; Writing by Katie Paul; Editing by Tom Brown)

Brexit Boosts Container Ship Rates As Public, Businesses Stockpile Goods

Authored by George Griffiths via Platts’ “The Barrel” blog,

As the UK’s self-imposed Brexit deadline of March 29 looms, some market participants in the container shipping industry are bracing themselves for a boost in rates.

Hopes of more clarity on the future relationship between the UK and the EU were dashed after Prime Minister Theresa May lost a vote in the House of Commons on her negotiated deal with the EU on January 15, in the greatest defeat of a sitting government in UK history.

As a result, the container shipping market is eyeing support for all-inclusive freight rates and utilization of capacity on vessels along key head-haul routes to the UK, as importers seek to stockpile goods before this date.

The market has already seen some support in recent months, with November rates bearing much of the brunt. But a last-minute jump in demand remains likely in the market.

A sideways glance at the news on a near daily basis shows the British public squirreling away essential supplies. Members of Mumsnet, an online parenting forum, have been discussing their plans to stockpile medication, toiletries, tobacco and hair dye. The BBC ran an article on January 15 on “Brexit boxes” which cost upward of £300, spanning freeze-dried food, water purification and fire starting kits.

The hoarding seen in the cupboards and kitchens of households up and down the country has a parallel in the major shipping lanes.

UK supermarket giant Tesco announced on January 16 that it will be renting refrigerated containers to increase the amount of frozen goods it can stockpile to prevent disruption stemming from Brexit, further fueling this shopping frenzy.

Some importers are looking once again to the Far East to increase imports into the UK, in case there are issues regarding customs and product gets delayed at the coast. This has potential ramifications not only for UK-EU trade, but for trade from North Asia – UK and North Asia – North Continent (any port between Gibraltar and the Baltic Sea), with freight rates to the UK likely to price as a premium over rates to the continent should there be logistical issues to encounter along this route.

The questions around ease of transit and unloading, and additional demand, comes on top of seasonal demand trends. Freight rates typically strengthen ahead of Chinese New Year, with people aiming to imports goods from China before the holiday hits and some factories close for as long as three weeks, curbing exports.

S&P Global Platts has seen the North Asia – North Continent Platts Bunker Rate 1 (PBR1) container shipping lane increase significantly since the end of 2018, with carriers desperate to move product out before the shutters come down on the Chinese infrastructure, and the Year of the Dog draws to an end.

“Will we see any movement of goods in the second half of February is the question – it all depends on how long China is off for the holidays,” said a container carrier source. With New Year celebrations sometimes extending into three weeks, it appears as if this surge in demand could be squeezed into a relatively short period of time.

Netherlands-based Samskip announced on November 11 that they would add a “Pre-Brexit Peak Volume Surcharge” to containers on their 14 weekly sailings between Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Gent, and the UK ports of Hull, Tilbury, Grangemouth and Belfast.

“As we move towards March 29 the demand for our transport services avoiding the ferry ports of southern England is increasing. Furthermore, we foresee that demand will outstrip supply before abruptly reducing in April as stock is first built up in February and March and then consumed in April before a restart at some point in late April/May,” the company said. Samskip’s surcharge will be Eur243 per load, showing just how strong they expect demand to be over this period.

Despite this, other think that the majority of stockpiling has already occurred and there is just notional amounts left to do for this year.

“Lots of pre-Brexit stockpiling for October-November, especially around Golden Week, but not now – it was always going to be tricky to stockpile in January with Chinese New Year just round the corner,” said a market participant.

Container carriers may be rubbing their hands with glee over the support this could give to the market. That prospect will be less pleasing to UK importers and potentially their customers – Mumsnet hoarders included – who are likely to shoulder the increased freight element, making future stockpiling an ever more expensive action. The old maxim appears to ring true once more: one hand giveth, the other taketh away.

President Trump’s Plan to End the Border Crisis

Trump proposed extending legal protections to one-million immigrants including work permits, enrollment in Social Security, $800-million in humanitarian assistance, $805-million for drug-detection technology, 2,750 new border agents, 75 new immigration judge teams, and $5.7-billion for the wall.

Patriots hammer Chargers, make eighth straight AFC title game

January 13, 2019

Scoring touchdowns on their first four possessions Sunday, the New England Patriots established a 35-7 halftime lead and cruised to a 41-28 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC divisional-round game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.

The result sends New England (12-5) to Kansas City next Sunday to play for the AFC title and a trip to the Super Bowl on Feb. 3. The conference championship at Arrowhead, a rematch of a 43-40 Patriots win in Week 6 in Foxborough, is scheduled to kick off at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Sunday’s win also gave the Patriots a perfect 9-0 home record this season and put them in the conference championship game for eighth consecutive season, extending an NFL record.

Los Angeles finished its season with a 13-5 record, after recording its first playoff win since January 2014 last week.

But on this day, the Chargers couldn’t come close to replicating last week’s wild-card round victory in Baltimore. The Patriots carved up Los Angeles’ defense for drives of 83, 67, 58 and 87 yards to start their day. When the Chargers finally stopped them, they fumbled the ensuing punt and the Patriots recovered, before going 35 yards for a fifth touchdown just before halftime.

Every aspect of New England’s offense did its job. Tom Brady completed 34 of 44 passes for 343 yards and a 15-yard scoring strike to Phillip Dorsett with 12:17 left in the second quarter. Rookie running back Sony Michel pounded out 129 yards on 24 carries, reaching the end zone on runs of 1, 14 and 5 yards.

Brady made liberal use of running back James White and wide receiver Julian Edelman — White caught 15 passes for 97 yards, and Edelman added nine catches for 151 yards, a franchise-record fifth 100-yard game in the playoffs.

“The line played great, and I thought we did a good job keeping them off-balance,” Brady said to CBS. “It’s that time of year where you have to play your best. We’ve got a big one next week.”

Defensively, the Patriots made the Chargers one-dimensional with their first-half explosion. Running back Melvin Gordon managed only nine carries for 15 yards and a third-quarter touchdown, forcing Philip Rivers to carry the load.

Operating under duress all day, Rivers completed only 25 of 51 passes for 331 yards and three scores with an interception. New England recorded only two sacks, but hurried and harassed the quarterback throughout the afternoon.

“This wasn’t the ending we wanted, but one game doesn’t define the type of season this team had,” Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn said.

–Field Level Media

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