DraftKings Crashes As “Aggressive Prediction Investments” Drive EBITDA Outlook Cut

DraftKings Crashes As “Aggressive Prediction Investments” Drive EBITDA Outlook Cut

DraftKings shares crashed 24.5% in Friday’s premarket trading after the sports betting operator slashed the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $225 million from $800 million. The mad dash into prediction markets overshadowed a 16% year-over-year increase in third-quarter revenue to $1.33 billion.

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“In just a few months, we have become the clear number three Predictions exchange by Total Volume,” CEO Jason Robins wrote in a letter to shareholders.

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BofA Securities gaming analyst Julie Hoover attributed $475 million of the $575 million guidance cut to additional investment in prediction markets. The remaining $100 million reflected a lower adjusted EBITDA forecast for the core business.

Hoover wrote in her first take:

Q3 Miss and 2027 estimate reset

DraftKings (ticker: DKNG) reported Q3 revenue/EBITDA of $1.33/-316M vs. BofA $1.345B/-$100M and the Street’s $1.393B/-66M. DKNG lowered their full year EBITDA guidance to $225M at midpoint vs. $800M, embedding $475M of incremental prediction market (PM) investment and $100M reduction to the core. For 2027, DKNG provided initial guidance of ~$800M-1B, including $300M of EBITDA loss related to PMs.

Bottom line: Shares of DKNG traded down -23% after the close on a bigger-than-expected 2027 numbers reset. Investors are disappointed by the magnitude of PM investment given the looming regulatory risk around sports event contracts. DKNG’s desire to be best-in-class has driven its top-line success, but greater guardrails around spend, particularly in the current regulatory backdrop, are critical to drive the bottom line and stock. We reiterate our Buy rating with numbers reset, and PMs a potential source of upside. We lower our PO to $23 based on 14x 2027E EBITDA (11x core 2027E EBITDA).

DraftKings’ 2027 guidance for prediction markets calls for $700 million in net revenue and $500 million in gross profit, with operating expenses rising to roughly $800 million from about $675 million this year. Hoover estimates that higher fixed costs account for approximately $50 million of that increase, with another $75 million going toward marketing. The additional marketing spending was unexpected, although a projected high-single-digit decline in core marketing suggests some dollars may be shifting between the businesses. Given DraftKings’ prediction-market share and the market’s rapid expansion, the revenue forecast could prove conservative.

Core: Investing in iGaming, +6% revenue growth in 2027

The company is investing roughly $40 million in iGaming this year to support longer-term growth. Third-quarter iGaming revenue rose 2%, below her 8% forecast, primarily because of increased promotional activity. Renewed investment looks sensible following two years of market-share losses. The company’s 2027 core revenue and EBITDA outlook assumes 6% revenue growth, with iGaming expanding faster than online sports betting. Although marketing spending can move between the core business and prediction markets, the guidance implies that 75% of incremental core revenue will translate into EBITDA – an ambitious assumption given the competitive promotional environment.

Here’s what the rest of Wall Street analysts are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence

  •  “DraftKings’ deep 2026 revenue and EBITDA outlook cuts on aggressive prediction investments create urgency to realize a targeted 20-month payback that defers prediction-market profit to late 2027 yet still implies a faster payback than for sportsbooks,” Brian Egger writes

Morgan Stanley (overweight, PT $31)

  • The material reduction in outlook should weigh on the stock
    The forecast cut was driven not only by prediction market spend but also a weaker core

CFRA (buy, PT $40)

  •  Analyst Zachary Warring says profitability deteriorated sharply as DraftKings accelerated investment in its Predictions platform
  •  “For the nine-month period, the shift is even more pronounced: Adjusted EBITDA swung from a positive $276.8M to ($34.4M), underscoring the magnitude of Predictions-related investment”

Vital Knowledge

  • “DraftKings reported a big miss on headline EBITDA in Q3 due in large part to heavy spending as mgmt. builds the predictions business, and this issue will extend into 2027, w/an aggregate EBITDA guide mid-point of ~$900MM below the consensus of $1.1B,” writes analyst Adam Crisafulli
  •  Says that while the company sounds very bullish about its predictions opportunity, this is coming at the expense of the core sportsbook business

According to Bloomberg data, 31 analysts rate DraftKings a Buy, eight rate it Neutral, and one rates it a Sell.

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The consensus 12-month price target is about $32.25.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 11/06/2026 – 09:20

Climate Change and Gilligan’s Island: Why Every Disaster Gets the Same Script

“Climate change” is a variable. It is not an evacuation plan, an engineering specification, or a geological diagnosis.

The post Climate Change and Gilligan’s Island: Why Every Disaster Gets the Same Script appeared first on Watts Up With That?.

Climate Change and Gilligan’s Island: Why Every Disaster Gets the Same Script

“Climate change” is a variable. It is not an evacuation plan, an engineering specification, or a geological diagnosis.

The post Climate Change and Gilligan’s Island: Why Every Disaster Gets the Same Script appeared first on Watts Up With That?.

Climate Change and Gilligan’s Island: Why Every Disaster Gets the Same Script

“Climate change” is a variable. It is not an evacuation plan, an engineering specification, or a geological diagnosis.

The post Climate Change and Gilligan’s Island: Why Every Disaster Gets the Same Script appeared first on Watts Up With That?.

Cursing Kuznets, Trying to Turn, Future Fears, The Tower Tells

Cursing Kuznets, Trying to Turn, Future Fears, The Tower Tells

Not as serious – or data-dense – as a Peoplenomics report (where we’d show off three dozen charts that matter in here).  But this is a “George-think Lite.” Before we get into the economics, which is our bread and butter around here, we’re going to “clear the decks” with a quick “roll in the news” and … Read More

For more, visit https://urbansurvival.com

They’re Baaacck: The Rogue AIs will continue until regulation improves.

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“Black Thursday”: On Top Of Everything Else, Now The Stock Market Is Crashing

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog: We are facing World War III, a global energy crisis, a global fertilizer crisis, a global food crisis, a global cost of living crisis, widespread rioting in Europe and a Super El Niño all at the same time. On top of everything else, now the stock market is crashing. […]

Senator-Elect Abdul El-Sayed Says Its Time To ‘Force-Jab’ Every Unvaccinated Person In America

from The Peoples Voice: Michigan’s Senator-Elect Abdul El-Sayed says it’s time to end religious exemptions and conscience-based vaccine opt-outs and “force-jab” every unvaccinated person in America—a direct concern for anyone who values medical autonomy. El-Sayed’s stated intention to mandate COVID-19 vaccines is a long-standing feature of his public health record. As Michigan led the nation […]

Wyoming to investigate claims Rocky Mountain Power dodges industry requests for more electricity

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The state will investigate allegations that Rocky Mountain Power is slow or unwilling to accommodate requests from existing and prospective customers who want large amounts of new electrical power.

The three-member Wyoming Public Service Commission — which holds authority over monopoly utilities like Rocky Mountain Power to provide reliable, lowest-cost services — voted unanimously Oct. 29 to “direct the company to provide relevant information and take such other action as the public interest may require.”

It is not yet clear what actions the commission might take if the investigation reveals shortcomings in the utility meeting its legal obligations in Wyoming. The commission is still finalizing the investigation order, an official told WyoFile.

What many in Wyoming see as a slow, years-long response to “large load” requests is due to a complex set of state and federal regulations, according to the company. The rules, along with Rocky Mountain Power’s own mission, are intended to protect against speculative investments so they don’t fall on the backs of existing customers to pay for if plans don’t pan out, Rocky Mountain Power President Dick Garlish told the commission.

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Rocky Mountain Power President Dick Garlish, left, visits with customers during a customer meeting in Casper on Aug. 27, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

“We’re not going to do any deal for [just] any reason,” he said. “We take our responsibilities as a regulated monopoly seriously, and we care about our customers — existing and future.”

The decision to launch an investigation feels punitive, Garlish added, because no customer requesting power has filed a formal complaint. 

“I don’t see the reasonable, probable cause, or even a reasonable suspicion,” he told the commission. “We’ve been nothing but candid and forthright in this venue and in the legislative venue and with our customers, so it feels unnecessarily burdensome and punitive.”

Launching the investigation is not a condemnation of Rocky Mountain Power, Commission Deputy Chairman Chris Petrie said.

“I think that this situation, because of the persistent complaints in the public about the company’s handling of such matters, requires us to resort to this investigation process in order to obtain assurance.

“We have our obligation,” Petrie added, “to see that safe, adequate and reliable service at just and reasonable rates is available throughout the service territory of Rocky Mountain Power.” 

Persistent complaints

The move to investigate Rocky Mountain Power comes amid unprecedented, skyrocketing demand for electricity in Wyoming and across the nation. 

Driven primarily by the buildout of artificial intelligence computing, U.S. utilities say they’re fielding requests that would double or triple current electrical generation capacity, the Associated Press reported last year.

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A Microsoft data center in Cheyenne’s Business Parkway on June 8, 2026,. (Ryan Dorgan/WyoFile)

In the Equality State, data center proposals from just two developers would require more than twice the state’s existing electrical generation capacity of 11,800 megawatts. Rocky Mountain Power — the largest regulated electric utility in Wyoming — says it has studied 83 requests for additional power during the past decade and served 24 of those to the tune of 258 megawatts. It has also evaluated some 4,300 megawatts-worth of “large load” requests, defined as more than 20 megawatts.

One megawatt is enough to power about 750 homes.

Yet Rocky Mountain Power’s response to new power requests continually comes before legislative committees, including from the long-existing trona and soda ash industry. Industry spokeswoman Jody Levin told a panel of lawmakers in May that trona expansion plans were delayed because the utility allegedly concluded that the soonest it could provide a significant boost in electrons to the industry is seven years out.

“Seven years is a de facto no,” Levin said. “That isn’t a reasonable timeframe.”

“Testimony before multiple legislative committees from industry and other entities have highlighted the issues that exist in acquiring timely and reliable access to power in southwest Wyoming,” Wyoming Mining Association Executive Director Travis Deti told WyoFile this week. “We will be monitoring this closely.”

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A data center in Casper, June 2025. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Many of the large electricity requests Rocky Mountain Power receives, Garlish told commissioners last week, come from “entrepreneurial” hopefuls, and many of their projects fall by the wayside for lack of financing, long permitting times and myriad other reasons apart from securing electrical power.

“Nobody wants to land a large-load deal in our service territory more than I do,” Garlish said. “But it has to protect existing customers. We won’t sign a deal that puts existing customers at risk. Growth needs to pay for growth. We have an obligation, just like you do, to protect our existing customers and protect our existing systems.”

The company is spending $80 million on initiatives to meet rising demand, he added.

The reason that no customers — prospective or existing — have filed a formal complaint against Rocky Mountain Power is because they are beholden to the utility, according to an attorney representing the Wyoming Industrial Energy Consumers group, which consists of oil and natural gas refineries, trona and other industrial customers of Rocky Mountain Power.

“They have to work with the incumbent utility,” Holland and Hart attorney Austin Jensen told the commission. “It is not good for business to call your only option before the commission [forcing them to undergo] a formal complaint process.”

Wyoming lawmakers, prompted by both entrepreneurial and existing industries in the state, have contemplated potentially tweaking regulations to allow for third-party power producers as an alternative to relying on established utilities. It’s an idea that Rocky Mountain Power has opposed.

Commissioners said they will investigate Rocky Mountain Power’s responses to large electricity requests dating back to January 2022.

Editor’s note: Rocky Mountain Power is a WyoFile sponsor.

The post Wyoming to investigate claims Rocky Mountain Power dodges industry requests for more electricity appeared first on WyoFile .

Wyoming to investigate claims Rocky Mountain Power dodges industry requests for more electricity

blank
blank

The state will investigate allegations that Rocky Mountain Power is slow or unwilling to accommodate requests from existing and prospective customers who want large amounts of new electrical power.

The three-member Wyoming Public Service Commission — which holds authority over monopoly utilities like Rocky Mountain Power to provide reliable, lowest-cost services — voted unanimously Oct. 29 to “direct the company to provide relevant information and take such other action as the public interest may require.”

It is not yet clear what actions the commission might take if the investigation reveals shortcomings in the utility meeting its legal obligations in Wyoming. The commission is still finalizing the investigation order, an official told WyoFile.

What many in Wyoming see as a slow, years-long response to “large load” requests is due to a complex set of state and federal regulations, according to the company. The rules, along with Rocky Mountain Power’s own mission, are intended to protect against speculative investments so they don’t fall on the backs of existing customers to pay for if plans don’t pan out, Rocky Mountain Power President Dick Garlish told the commission.

blank
Rocky Mountain Power President Dick Garlish, left, visits with customers during a customer meeting in Casper on Aug. 27, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

“We’re not going to do any deal for [just] any reason,” he said. “We take our responsibilities as a regulated monopoly seriously, and we care about our customers — existing and future.”

The decision to launch an investigation feels punitive, Garlish added, because no customer requesting power has filed a formal complaint. 

“I don’t see the reasonable, probable cause, or even a reasonable suspicion,” he told the commission. “We’ve been nothing but candid and forthright in this venue and in the legislative venue and with our customers, so it feels unnecessarily burdensome and punitive.”

Launching the investigation is not a condemnation of Rocky Mountain Power, Commission Deputy Chairman Chris Petrie said.

“I think that this situation, because of the persistent complaints in the public about the company’s handling of such matters, requires us to resort to this investigation process in order to obtain assurance.

“We have our obligation,” Petrie added, “to see that safe, adequate and reliable service at just and reasonable rates is available throughout the service territory of Rocky Mountain Power.” 

Persistent complaints

The move to investigate Rocky Mountain Power comes amid unprecedented, skyrocketing demand for electricity in Wyoming and across the nation. 

Driven primarily by the buildout of artificial intelligence computing, U.S. utilities say they’re fielding requests that would double or triple current electrical generation capacity, the Associated Press reported last year.

blank
A Microsoft data center in Cheyenne’s Business Parkway on June 8, 2026,. (Ryan Dorgan/WyoFile)

In the Equality State, data center proposals from just two developers would require more than twice the state’s existing electrical generation capacity of 11,800 megawatts. Rocky Mountain Power — the largest regulated electric utility in Wyoming — says it has studied 83 requests for additional power during the past decade and served 24 of those to the tune of 258 megawatts. It has also evaluated some 4,300 megawatts-worth of “large load” requests, defined as more than 20 megawatts.

One megawatt is enough to power about 750 homes.

Yet Rocky Mountain Power’s response to new power requests continually comes before legislative committees, including from the long-existing trona and soda ash industry. Industry spokeswoman Jody Levin told a panel of lawmakers in May that trona expansion plans were delayed because the utility allegedly concluded that the soonest it could provide a significant boost in electrons to the industry is seven years out.

“Seven years is a de facto no,” Levin said. “That isn’t a reasonable timeframe.”

“Testimony before multiple legislative committees from industry and other entities have highlighted the issues that exist in acquiring timely and reliable access to power in southwest Wyoming,” Wyoming Mining Association Executive Director Travis Deti told WyoFile this week. “We will be monitoring this closely.”

blank
A data center in Casper, June 2025. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Many of the large electricity requests Rocky Mountain Power receives, Garlish told commissioners last week, come from “entrepreneurial” hopefuls, and many of their projects fall by the wayside for lack of financing, long permitting times and myriad other reasons apart from securing electrical power.

“Nobody wants to land a large-load deal in our service territory more than I do,” Garlish said. “But it has to protect existing customers. We won’t sign a deal that puts existing customers at risk. Growth needs to pay for growth. We have an obligation, just like you do, to protect our existing customers and protect our existing systems.”

The company is spending $80 million on initiatives to meet rising demand, he added.

The reason that no customers — prospective or existing — have filed a formal complaint against Rocky Mountain Power is because they are beholden to the utility, according to an attorney representing the Wyoming Industrial Energy Consumers group, which consists of oil and natural gas refineries, trona and other industrial customers of Rocky Mountain Power.

“They have to work with the incumbent utility,” Holland and Hart attorney Austin Jensen told the commission. “It is not good for business to call your only option before the commission [forcing them to undergo] a formal complaint process.”

Wyoming lawmakers, prompted by both entrepreneurial and existing industries in the state, have contemplated potentially tweaking regulations to allow for third-party power producers as an alternative to relying on established utilities. It’s an idea that Rocky Mountain Power has opposed.

Commissioners said they will investigate Rocky Mountain Power’s responses to large electricity requests dating back to January 2022.

Editor’s note: Rocky Mountain Power is a WyoFile sponsor.

The post Wyoming to investigate claims Rocky Mountain Power dodges industry requests for more electricity appeared first on WyoFile .

¿Por Qué Ni Trump Ni Los Demócratas Pudieron Generar Crédito Para La Reindustrialización en Lugar De Para La Flexibilización Cuantitativa (QE)?

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The post ¿Por Qué Ni Trump Ni Los Demócratas Pudieron Generar Crédito Para La Reindustrialización en Lugar De Para La Flexibilización Cuantitativa (QE)? appeared first on Global Research.

¿Por Qué Ni Trump Ni Los Demócratas Pudieron Generar Crédito Para La Reindustrialización en Lugar De Para La Flexibilización Cuantitativa (QE)?

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The post ¿Por Qué Ni Trump Ni Los Demócratas Pudieron Generar Crédito Para La Reindustrialización en Lugar De Para La Flexibilización Cuantitativa (QE)? appeared first on Global Research.

Wow: Islamophobia Sure Gets a Lot of Terrorism Supporters Elected

by Matt Margolis, PJ Media: More than a quarter century ago, Democrats spent a few weeks experiencing some clarity about whence the real threats to America came. The 9/11 Islamic terrorist attacks hit in two places where a lot of Dems lived — New York City and Washington, D.C. For the first time since World […]

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